NYSE Composite Index - 1996

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 1996 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 3484.15 Hist. Volatility: 0.4% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value: 4148.07 Percentile: 91%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 1996 (what's this?).